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It’s been a bumpy ride for mortgage rates this year, to say the least. At the end of February, rates on 30-year mortgages finally fell below the 6% mark, but they’ve since ticked back up and are currently averaging about 6.4% (as of April 6, 2026). The conflict in Iran and the higher prices it brings are a major driver in the change of course. And with no end in sight, that will likely continue to affect rates for the coming months.
“We touched sub-6% for the first time since 2022 at the end of February,” says David Kakish, a home loan expert at Anchor Home Loans. “Two days later, geopolitical risk changed the picture, inflation expectations moved higher, the 10-year Treasury followed, and mortgage rates moved with it.”
So what does this all mean for potential homebuyers and refinancers in this unique landscape?
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4 things mortgage lenders want homebuyers to know this April
Here’s what mortgage lenders and banks want you to know before you make any moves this April:
Waiting for lower rates could be risky
While buyers would like to see lower rates before buying a house or refinancing, experts say waiting for lower rates probably isn’t a safe bet these days. Mortgage rates are likely to remain above 6% for the foreseeable future, after all, and are likely to remain that way well past 2026, according to the latest forecast from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
“The Fed held last week, which the market expected, and [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell made clear the bar for cuts is higher now,” Kakish says. “Until there’s more certainty around energy prices and broader inflation, rates are likely to stay rangebound in the low-to-mid 6s. The path to lower rates is still there, but it has been delayed.”
When it comes to where rates will head, all eyes are on the Iran conflict and its impact on the Strait of Hormuz, where much of the world’s oil passes through.
“Unfortunately, they are not allowing any ships through, causing a worldwide panic and oil shortage. Because oil is widely used across various industries, the Federal Reserve is seeing signs of inflation,” says Kevin Watson, branch manager for Churchill Mortgage in Nashville. “I don’t see rates getting any better until the war in Iran is resolved and the Strait is fully reopened.”
When that will happen is anyone’s guess, but given this uncertainty, experts say banking on a mortgage rate drop isn’t wise if a home purchase or refinance is on your radar this spring.
“Mortgage rates haven’t been very predictable these last few years,” says Emily Green, a branch manager at Churchill Mortgage in Meridian, Idaho. “Every time we think we know what will happen, the opposite occurs with rates. Honestly, with the volatile macro- and micro-economic factors at play, it’s hard to say what will show up on our 2026 mortgage rate bingo card.”
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You may want to lock your mortgage rate now
If you’re thinking of refinancing or buying a home in the near term, locking in your rate now might be wise. Many mortgage lenders offer rate locks from 30 to 90 days (or sometimes longer), which can protect you from any volatility that might come in the next few months.
“If you’ve found a home that meets your needs and you’re comfortable with the costs, then you should lock ASAP,” says Sam Sharp, executive vice president and mortgage loan officer at CrossCountry Mortgage in Chicago. “Call this hope for the best, but plan for the worst.”
Locking in a rate now can also help you stay competitive as we enter the busy spring homebuying season. The buyer pool generally expands in the spring, which means buyers need to work harder to stand out with sellers. Having a preapproved loan and locked rate can help in that arena, experts say.
“Spring and summer are usually when the housing market picks up,” Sharp says. “But no matter what the market looks like, the best thing you can do is be prepared. Getting preapproved is a simple first step. It helps you understand your budget, keeps things moving, and shows sellers you’re serious.”
Going by your budget is the best approach
No crystal ball can tell buyers where rates or what will happen with the ongoing geopolitical conflict. What you can accurately predict, though, is what monthly mortgage payment works for your household.
“Look past the minor rate changes from day-to-day and month-to-month,” Green says. “It’s impossible to time the market, and even the best economic forecasters get rate predictions wrong. What truly matters instead is asking yourself two questions: Am I mentally and financially ready to buy a home right now? Am I comfortable with the monthly payment based on today’s rates and prices?”
Once you answer those questions and find a loan and house that mesh with your budget, then it’s time to pull the trigger.
“If the home works at today’s rate, locking your rate now gives you certainty in an environment that still has a lot of volatility,” Kakish says. “If the deal only works at 5.75%, that is not a timing issue. That is a budget issue.”
You can refinance in the future
Experts say it’s important to remember that if you don’t get the perfect rate you’re looking for in this landscape, refinancing your mortgage loan is always an option in the future. This can allow you to take advantage of lower mortgage rates, should they end up dropping.
“Even if you have to take a higher rate now, you can always refinance down the road when rates drop,” Watson says. “Home prices will rise in the future based on demand, so take advantage of these uncertain times to get a better deal.”
The bottom line
Mortgage rates may not be where buyers and refinancers hoped they’d be this spring, but waiting for the perfect moment could mean missing out entirely. With rates likely to stay rangebound in the low-to-mid 6s — and geopolitical uncertainty keeping any meaningful drop off the table for now — the smartest move may be to focus on what you can control: your credit, your debt load and your rate lock. If the numbers work for your budget today, experts say, that’s worth more than a forecast that keeps changing.