The United States and Iran may or may not be closing in on an agreement tentatively ending the war that began with U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Feb. 28. Whether this will be a ceasefire, a full-fledged peace deal or any kind of deal at all is still very much up in the air.
On Tuesday, Iran vowed retaliation after the U.S. carried out strikes in southern Iran. The Pentagon said it targeted missile-launch sites and boats attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
The two sides still have ample reasons to seek a lasting end to the fighting. Iran’s economy is in shambles, and most of its pre-war leadership is dead. The global economy is reeling from soaring costs of fuel, fertilizer and other vital products.
That doesn’t guarantee Tehran and Washington will find a way out of the conflict. President Donald Trump said Monday that talks were “proceeding nicely” – but he has repeatedly teased a deal and even said in mid-April that Iran had “agreed to everything” on the American agenda. And, of course, the war continues.
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If and when the two sides unveil the next steps, here are some things to look for:
What Iran Says About Nuclear Weapons
Successive American administrations have declared that Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. This is ostensibly the top U.S. national security interest. So one major question is what Iran publicly commits to in terms of future development of an atomic bomb.
Ironically, this could be a pretty easy win for the U.S. Under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – better known as “the Obama nuclear deal” – Tehran promised that “under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons.”
On the one hand, there’s no reason Iran could not make a similar promise now. On the other hand, if Trump’s arrangement cannot clear this low bar, pessimism about ending the conflict will be in order.
What Iran Does With Uranium Enrichment
There are two things to watch here: what Iran agrees to do with its existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium and what it agrees to do about future uranium enrichment – the process of refining that element to make it suitable for a nuclear weapon.
In the past, Iran has refused to swear off domestic uranium enrichment completely, saying it has the right to a civilian nuclear energy program. The United States has historically viewed this with suspicion, as officials say it means Tehran would effectively retain the ability to produce weapons-grade uranium should it decide to do so.
My questions: Does Iran accept limits on domestic enrichment? Would there be inspections of nuclear sites to ensure it’s not making weapons-grade fuel? What will it do with its existing pile of highly enriched uranium, which it developed after Trump tore up the 2015 plan of action in his first term?
What Happens to Hormuz?
Iran shuttering the strait has yielded skyrocketing fuel prices – which you know if you own a car and have had to fill up the tank at any point since late February. That dynamic is Tehran’s best weapon when it comes to pressuring the U.S. to end the conflict. And Iran has threatened to keep imposing “tolls” on shipping that goes through Hormuz.
Even if a deal reopens Hormuz, how quickly can the tankers and shipping containers idling in the strait since late February get their cargoes to market? How quickly will that bring prices down?
How Will Iran Get Sanctions Relief?
Iran wants relief from economic pressure – sanctions lifted and assets unfrozen.
What will a deal say about what gets lifted and when? This may be the most controversial part of any arrangement for U.S. lawmakers, who worry more money for Iran means more money for a rogue regime pledged to wipe Israel off the map and responsible for decades of deadly attacks on Americans.
Proxy Power
Will any deal include some sort of enforceable commitment from Iran to stop funding proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza or the Houthis in Yemen?
That’s a tall order. Those groups have been the mechanism for Iran to project power across the region for decades.
But then, there’s very little about this round of negotiations that isn’t a tall order. The biggest question here is whether the combatants pick concessions over cruise missiles.