Stocks look set to surge in early trading on Monday after President Trump postponed an ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, saying that the U.S. is engaged in “good and productive” negotiations with Tehran.
S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures pointed to 1.6% gains in Monday morning trading. Before Mr. Trump announced the delay on social media, futures had pointed to an almost 1% decline.
Oil prices also immediately retreated, with Brent crude, the international benchmark, and West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, both falling 6.2%.
Mr. Trump had earlier set a deadline of Monday night for Iran to reopen ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world’s oil supply, threatening to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it didn’t concede. Iran responded by threatening to attack U.S. and Israeli energy and infrastructure assets in the region.
On Monday morning, Mr. Trump said the U.S. would hold off on strikes against Iranian power plants and other energy infrastructure for five days. That is easing investor concerns that the Iran war could escalate, worsening the growing oil crisis.
“The global economy was teetering on the edge of a precipice the likes of which Trump had never encountered during either of his two terms (worse than COVID and worse than tariffs), and his instinct for self-preservation is too great to deliberately drive off the cliff,” Wall Street analyst Adam Crisafulli, head of Vital Knowledge, told investors in a research note.
Even with the decline in oil prices, crude is trading about 45% higher than it was before the start of the Iran war in late February. Americans are paying an average of $3.96 for a gallon of gasoline, up more than $1 per gallon from one month ago, according to AAA.
The economic fallout is likely to linger even if fighting ends today, Crisafulli said. “But at least now there is a line of sight toward resolution,” he said.