One week has passed since the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefirebut the conflict and its impacts seem far from over. Peace talks between the two countries reached no conclusion over the past weekend, and the United States has announced a naval blockade of Iran’s ports. Until a permanent agreement is reached, the risk of continued fighting looms and shipping disruptions keep global prices high. On day 46 of the conflict, here are three considerations for the future of the war.
Global Poverty Could Increase
A new policy brief from the United Nations Development Programme warned that over 30 million people across 162 countries are at risk of being pushed into poverty if the war continues. The report detailed a new phase for the conflict’s economic impacts, evolving into an “enduring” period in its sixth week. This means higher risk of poverty in vulnerable countries, and an extended loss of societal development.
“Conflict can undo in weeks what countries have built over years,” UNDP Administrator and UN Under-Secretary-General Alexander De Croo said in the Monday press release. De Croo emphasized these risks go beyond countries directly involved in the war, as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up food and energy prices globally.
Using economic models to map future scenarios, the UNDP considered the most vulnerable populations and their reliance on imported goods, including in Sudan, Yemen and Zambia, where large percentages of the population already live on low incomes. Assuming the poorest populations spend around 50% of their income on food and 12% on energy, the report noted that rising costs from the war could effectively make basic necessities nearly unattainable for these groups.
Shrinking Oil Trade and Shifting Projections
The International Energy Agency updated its 2026 forecast on Tuesday, now expecting a drop in global oil supply and demand this year as a result of the Iran war, Robert Harvey for Reuters reports. In what the agency called the “largest oil supply shock in history,” global oil supplies are projected to shrink by 1.5 million barrels per day. This shift is also expected to lower global demand, as oil remains expensive and difficult to acquire. The IEA noted that Middle Eastern and Asia-Pacific countries have cut their oil consumption the most since the conflict began.
The International Monetary Fund released its own projections on Tuesday, with three future scenarios for the global economy, David Lawder for Reuters reports. While the base scenario references a quick end to the conflict and subsequent energy disruptions, “adverse” and “severe” projections envision a drawn-out conflict and persistent rising costs. In both of these scenarios, global GDP growth remains slow, oil price averages remain at current levels or higher, and global headline inflation could at worst breach 6%.
Mossad Seeks Regime Change
In Tuesday remarks, Israel’s spy chief David Barnea pledged to continue pursuing regime change in Iran, saying Mossad’s “mission has yet to be completed,” Dan Williams for Bloomberg reports.
While Barnea is set to end his position in June, Roman Gofman, who is slated to replace him as Israel’s spy chief, has also made comments supporting Iranian regime change, Tal Shalev for CNN reports. One source told the news outlet it has been Mossad’s position to make regime change “a likely outcome.”
While acknowledging “Israel hadn’t expected” U.S. attacks to change much in Iran’s government, Barnea’s comments could add tension to the peace talks between the United States and Iran, Bloomberg noted, which are set to continue this week.