SAO PAULO, April 11 (Reuters) – Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro have remained statistically tied in a potential runoff in the October general elections, a Datafolha poll showed on Saturday, with the lawmaker rising within the survey’s error margin.
Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 46% of the votes in a runoff, compared with 45% for Lula, according to Datafolha. Lula had 46% compared to 43% for Flavio Bolsonaro in early March nL6N3ZV05B.
It was the first time the younger Bolsonaro surpassed Lula numerically in a Datafolha poll, but the changes remained within the survey’s margin of error of two percentage points in either direction, meaning both were still statistically tied.
Lula, who will seek a fourth non-consecutive term, has seen his advantage evaporate this year, with Flavio Bolsonaro rising in polls nL1N40J0Y0 after gaining the public support nL1N3XB0QD in December from his father, who is under house arrest for plotting a coup.
In the first round, Lula, 80, maintains the lead in the scenario polled through spontaneous mentions. But he has lost the lead when the respondents are shown the candidates, with the president now statistically tied with Bolsonaro, according to the survey.
Datafolha interviewed 2,004 voters from Tuesday to Thursday in 137 municipalities.
(Reporting by Andre Romani in Sao Paulo and Maria Carolina Marcello in Brasilia; Editing by Alistair Bell)
Copyright 2026 Thomson Reuters.